Posted: March 26th, 2022

Designing next-generation vessels for safe and efficient navigation in the challenging weather conditions of the Arabian Sea

Designing next-generation vessels for safe and efficient navigation in the challenging weather conditions of the Arabian Sea
1. Introduction
The adverse weather conditions in the Arabian Sea are primarily attributed to the monsoon winds. These occur on a seasonal cycle but are most severe during the June-September period when the summer monsoon is at its peak. During this time, strong southwesterly winds of between force 3 and 6 begin to affect the sea's western regions progressing eastwards by July. This results in significant wave heights of up to 4 meters. By September, the wind strength can reach up to force 8 and waves can approach 5-7 meters in height. The adverse weather is due to the presence of a semi-permanent low-pressure system located over the northern regions of the Sea, particularly around the Gulf of Aden and the Sindh region of Pakistan. This results in a pressure gradient between it and the higher pressure areas located over India and the southern regions of the sea. The wind strength decreases once the monsoon season has ended, but the adverse conditions can extend into the winter months due to the presence of low-pressure systems and depressions.
The Arabian Sea is a region of the Indian Ocean bounded on the east by India, on the northwest by Pakistan, and on the southwest by Yemen and Oman. The Somali Sea and the Laccadive Sea are subsets of the Arabian Sea. About 35,940,000 km2 in area, it is also known as the Sea of Oman.
Vast expanses of water present numerous challenges to the mariner or ship designer. The Arabian Sea is no exception to this and possesses one of the most inhospitable weather patterns experienced by any other tropical oceans and seas. These adverse meteorological conditions, in terms of wind, wave and current, pose a serious threat to both the safety and efficiency of navigation for vessels of all types. With the sea being an essential route for the transportation of oil to many areas of the world, it is imperative that a design is proposed that will enable safe and efficient navigation for any vessel.
1.1 Importance of safe and efficient navigation in the Arabian Sea
Safe and efficient navigation in the Arabian Sea is of great importance, as the Arabian Sea is the only sea that connects with the Indian Ocean, making its way to the Middle East. About 97% of the world's energy gets transferred at low cost from the Middle East to Western countries through maritime transit. An enormous amount of traffic moves in and out of the Arabian Sea to its neighboring countries. The valuable energy coming from the Arabian Gulf to the Western world has to pass through the Arabian Sea to make its way to the Western world. Energy traffic of this sort and the importance of today's world trade demand a very significant role of maritime communication in its strategic as well as economic value. Most of the ships act as the primary carriers, and it's safe to assume that they are vital links to the world's economy and longevity. An unexpected hazard or accident due to foul weather or lack of good communication can cause serious damage and can have long-lasting effects.
Unplanned weather attacks and accidents are known to cause numerous cargo and oil spills. Since the Arabian Sea is landlocked by various countries, any mishap can cause friction between them, and it has happened on several occasions. Although less trade of today's world communications and shipping are done with the sole purpose of war, in times of tension, ships are likely to be seen as military assets and can become targets because they maintain economic flow for the state, and their enemies will try to counter it. Measures taken must ensure absolute safety for ships and their free movement during peace or at times of tension.
1.2 Challenges posed by weather conditions in the Arabian Sea
These weather conditions are simulated by the WAM model, which provides wave boundary data to the global ocean wave model for use in predicting swell and wind sea genetics. The Wave Watch III model is used for predicting wind waves and currents. Both of these models contain detailed wind sea and swell wave field predictions that can be used for making ship routing decisions. In order to capture the intensity of weather events during the monsoon season, we need dynamic atmospheric models. All of this model data would be most valuable to ships trying to avoid adverse weather events in the Arabian Sea. Currently, it is very difficult to predict local weather systems that are associated with heavy rain and severe winds. The global and regional models from above the surface of the ocean do not provide enough information for a ship to make an educated routing decision.
The monsoon season in the Arabian Sea has some of the world's most unfriendly weather for shipping. Winds circle counterclockwise around a low-pressure area in the northern part of the sea and they reverse direction during the southern hemisphere's monsoon. The combination of the change in wind direction and the proximity to landmasses make the parts of the Indian west coast a particularly hazardous area for shipping. During the southwest monsoon, which is between June and September, when the humidity is at its peak, severe weather systems often develop. During these tumultuous times, the Arabian Sea experiences a great deal of heavy rain and strong winds reaching gale force and above. Most ship routing in the Arabian Sea during monsoons is aimed at evading the heavy weather, but it is difficult to avoid the associated high and very high probabilities of adverse sea state. This is because the monsoon system completely occupies the Arabian Sea until the end of September, and the active equatorial zone in the Indian Ocean also causes heavy weather and high swell development. The adverse weather conditions currently pose a huge risk to mariners sailing in and around the Arabian Sea and are an inhibiting factor to economic growth in the countries.
1.3 Need for next-generation vessels
Step changes in naval architecture and ship design can be brought about with the explicit purpose of increasing safety in adverse weather while having ship designs whose low capital and operating costs can be achieved through improved efficiency of operation. This is particularly important for the region should adverse weather make it less economically viable to transport energy and other goods. Development of ships which have increased safety with little or no increase in cost will also serve well in ensuring that the sea remains a viable global shipping route. This will make our endeavor one which is market-driven. It should be noted that a market exists for ships whose operating costs are deliberately higher if it can be shown that an increase in safety is being achieved. Briefly, our generic engineering framework for the development of next-generation ships to navigate the Arabian Sea is one of improving safety and efficiency with reasonable incurred or reduced costs.
Considering the present and future importance of the Arabian Sea as a global shipping route, the area clearly represents a very viable niche market for the development of next-generation ships. These new ships will be designed to enable safer and more time and cost efficient navigation. Factors that make an Arabian Sea niche market viable include: the expected rise in volume of shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf concurrent with a global increase in demand for oil; large expected increases in regional imports of oil, liquid natural gas, and petroleum products; the reputation of the Arabian Sea as a most dangerous area to navigate due to its unique combination of high winds and adverse tropical weather; and the ever-increasing global pressure to reduce costs. Given the nature of the region, energy shipping activities will remain of paramount importance for the foreseeable future. Thus, it is energy shipping and energy shipping safety, particularly in adverse weather, which can serve as a focus for the development of new ships in the Arabian Sea niche market. Over time, such vessels will also find marketability in other sectors seeking safe and efficient navigation in adverse weather.
Next-generation ships are in urgent need to have safe and efficient navigation.
2. Understanding the Arabian Sea
The Arabian Sea (AS) occupies one of the most significant geopolitical locations on Earth. To the north, it is bounded by the Iranian Peninsula and Pakistan; to the east, India; to the west, the Horn of Africa; and to the south, the Somali and Arabian Peninsulas. It is the largest tropical sea in the northern hemisphere. The monsoons are the most prominent feature of the AS. They are seasonal winds which blow for more than a few weeks. Streaming from the southwest in summer and from the northeast in winter, the SW and NE monsoons bracket a short period of erratic winds which usually coincide with great meteorological disturbances in the form of depressions and cyclones. Though wind belts in other seas are not always very well defined, in the AS the monsoon wind systems are complex and highly changeable. The NE monsoon which occurs during October-March is a result of dense cold air over Central Asia moving across the AS to the low pressure regions in the southeast. The SW monsoon comes with the heating of the Indian Subcontinent, and the moisture-laden winds cause heavy rain. Wind speeds during monsoons can be very high. Cyclones prevalent from May-December are a highly dangerous aspect of AS weather. They can occur at any time, although the majority occur just before and after the monsoons, moving onto the areas of the Northern Indian Ocean. High wind and seas are highly destructive around the cyclone center, and seafarers are warned long in advance about their approach. Any new ship design must take these winds into account, and a vessel operating in such conditions should be capable of performing as well as at any other time. Measures for safe anchorage or avoidance of cyclone areas are also highly important. An understanding of what the prevailing weather and ocean conditions were when ship losses occurred could be attained through investigating the tracks of ships which encountered mishap and comparing the data with knowledge of the various weather systems in the AS. Data on cyclones is widely available from the Indian Meteorological Office.
2.1 Geographical features and significance of the Arabian Sea
The Arabian Sea is a region of the northern Indian Ocean bounded on the north by Pakistan and Iran, on the west by the Gulf of Aden, Guardafui Channel, and the Arabian Peninsula, on the southeast by the Laccadive Islands, on the east by India, and on the south by the rest of the Indian Ocean. The total area of the Arabian Sea is 3,862,000 km2 (1,491,000 sq mi). The sea has a maximum depth of 4,652 meters (15,262 ft) and an average depth of 2,850 m (9,350 ft). The predominant depth of the sea is 2000–3000 m. The Arabian Sea is primarily an evaporative basin of oceanic water. The Gulf of Aden water is somewhat more saline. Temperature inversions are common, due to the surface Arabian Sea maintaining a higher temperature during the summer and winter than the upper bands of the troposphere. Cyclonic storms are frequent and bring in massive amounts of rain in the Indian states of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra on the west coast of India, the Sindh and Punjab regions of Pakistan, and the desert coasts of Saudi Arabia and Yemen. This meteorological capacity to bring rain is counterbalanced by the deserts in the Arabic peninsula. Erosional features prevail on the southwest coast, where the sea is marginally shallow at 151 to 286 meters (495 to 940 ft) in depth. On the northwest (Sind) coast the sea is much deeper, with a clear depth of about 3,000 meters (9,800 ft). The Central basin features a very broad linear shelf margin. The slope of the margin is quite steep, with the depth at the shelf break and the upper part of the slope averaging 1,000 meters, however it is not very smooth, as the slope contains numerous narrow gorges and sometimes rough terrain. The slope of the margin continues on from the shelf break, and has an average depth of 2,000 meters. The sea is very oligotrophic in nature, and the surface waters generally have a sub-saturating concentration of nutrients. High nutrient regions are close to the Somali coast and along the coast of southwestern India. High productivity is found in the coastal shallower waters of the northern and western sea.
2.2 Climate patterns and weather conditions in the Arabian Sea
When compared to global average data, the Arabian Sea has a unique climate. The Arabian Sea is a part of the Indian Ocean, more or less like a dead-end. With land on the north and east, and the large expanse of the ocean to the west, the Arabian Sea has a special place in the scheme of planetary scale monsoons and resultant climate. Monsoon, then defines the seasonal cycle of the climate. According to the changed monsoon pattern, the climate can be broadly divided into two seasons: the summer or the southwest monsoon season (June to September) and the retreating or the northeast monsoon season (November to March). The southwest monsoon winds are the result of the temperature difference between the Tibetan plateau and the sea, and they bring heavy rains to the Indian subcontinent. These winds pass over the Arabian Sea, so to say "laying down the welcome mat" for the tropical cyclones generated in the northwest Indian Ocean or the adjacent Arabian Sea. The summer monsoon is also associated with the intensive upwelling along the coast of Somalia, Arabia, and western India. The winter monsoon sees the reversal of the winds and low temperatures result in a relatively dry and stable atmosphere and also reduction of the local sea surface temperatures.
2.3 Impact of weather conditions on navigation
The monsoon weather brings in strong winds up to 50-60 knots, heavy rains, cyclones, and reduced visibility. These changes in weather and winds restrict the movement of vessels in the northern and central Arabian Sea because of adverse wind and sea conditions. The same is true for the reversal phase of the monsoon, which makes the sea conditions adverse along the Indian coast. Although the clarity in understanding the impact of monsoon weather on shipping is not very clear, literature surveys suggest that there are increased marine accidents during the monsoon season.
The weather conditions in the Arabian Sea are very challenging and thus affect the navigation of vessels. Due to the monsoon cycle, the seasonal reversal of winds and reversed direction of ocean currents are observed. The onset of the Southwest monsoon is from the south tip of the Indian Peninsula in early June. The monsoon currents are strong along the western Indian coast. The adverse sea conditions due to strong winds are up to 250-300 m depth.
3. Key Considerations for Designing Next-Generation Vessels
When considering the types of ships that should be constructed to allow for safe and efficient navigation in the adverse weather conditions of the Arabian Sea, the development of ships bearing technology at its forefront is an absolute necessity. This is especially true in modern times where state-of-the-art technology has greatly influenced daily life, and this is of course no different when it comes to ship building. And as the Arabian Sea is known for its sudden and often violent changes in weather, having access to as much information regarding weather and sea conditions is critical to a ship's safe passage. It is also well known that the Arabian Sea is a very densely populated shipping region, with shipping lanes often crossing or running parallel to each other; combined with poor visibility due to weather conditions this makes for prime conditions for ship collisions. Therefore, the need for technologies to prevent collisions is very much in high demand. An example of a relevant technological system would be the Automatic Identification System (AIS) which is an automatic tracking system used on ships for the exchange of information such as position, speed, and heading and is used to identify and locate vessels.
An understanding of global weather patterns and the peculiarities of the Arabian Sea in particular is also crucial in order for ships to avoid dangerous weather conditions. This is where technology provides one of the most important tools for safe navigation, as access to up-to-date weather and oceanographic information using the internet is now an essential part of voyage and passage planning. The availability of such information has saved countless lives throughout the history of sea travel as it allows for mariners to make informed decisions regarding whether or not to venture into certain areas, or if caught in bad weather, the best locations to take shelter. Such information may also be relayed to the ships whilst at sea, sometimes in the form of regular warnings or advisories for certain areas, or in extreme cases, emergency information to those in danger.
3.1 Advanced navigation systems and technologies
Modern ship navigation involves much more than just finding a path between two points. Modern navigation is about efficient movement of goods and sometimes passengers from one place to another, requiring a considerable degree of route planning, real-time monitoring, and dynamic replanning taking into account the latest information about the operating environment. Unfortunately, much of the technology used today compares unfavorably with systems used in other industries and lacks the levels of reliability and availability necessary for safe operation and to support the implementation of higher-level strategies to improve efficiency and reduce impact on the environment. The major problems lie in the overreliance on the human operator for simple monitoring tasks, the lack of a suitable electronic means of representing the ship's environment, and the lack of suitable decision support tools for more complex route planning and execution activities.
The NUDGE project aims to change this by providing a holistic approach to ship navigation, focusing on the automation of monitoring, navigation, and planning tasks while always considering the end user in system design and the human factors implications of automation. The project will address issues surrounding reliability, trust, and the regulatory and insurance industry requirements for the presence of a human in the loop.
3.2 Robust hull design and structural integrity
Now compare this to the safe-haven tactics of European naval forces in the 16th and 17th centuries. In the event of a storm, these vessels would stake out the lee of an island or coastline to wait out the bad weather. If damage occurred then it was not life-threatening and the ships could all be repaired. This is the essence of a good structural design – ability to survive the worst case scenario without endangering the crew. This principle applies not just to damage survival, but also ship survivability. A modern naval force would not want to simply avoid a storm by coming into port, as demonstrated by the loss of strategic momentum incurred by modern shipping companies choosing to avoid bad weather by changing their scheduling routes. The ships and their cargoes are an investment and through the concept of damage avoidance, ship structural integrity ultimately translates into saving money. This can be achieved through various means, one of which is a change in material.
It is reported that from a study of 390 ships, structural design faults accounted for 6-8% of the total cost of repairing ship damage from a storm incident. In other words, the better the structural design, the better the chance of a ship surviving a storm. This is because it isn't just damage that can halt a ship in its tracks. Often an undetected structural fault will suddenly give way in bad weather, leading to total failure of the part or, in severe cases, a complete hull collapse. This was demonstrated in 2007 by the loss of a roll-on roll-off ferry in the Arabian Sea. The vessel had been converted from a container ship and, having not been originally designed for such rough weather, lacked the structural integrity required to survive the conditions. As a result, the ship was taking on water and it was decided that the best strategy was to head for the Omani port of Sohar to effect repairs. However, en route the structural faults rapidly deteriorated in worsening weather and the ship was quickly evacuated prior to it sinking just over 50 miles from where it had started taking on water. As the last to the ship's loss is not reported, although its passengers and crew all survived, the vessel's total loss is estimated to have caused over $200 million worth of damage.
Creating next-generation vessels for the Arabian Sea requires a number of key structural considerations. The Arabian Sea is renowned for its heavy monsoon rain and strong winds around its north region, while the Somali Current and associated upwelling in the semi-enclosed Gulf of Aden are known for producing heavy and strong winds. These turbulent weather patterns can be extremely stressful for a vessel at sea, and so the structural design of the vessel must be capable of withstanding it. Specifically, the vessel must be able to avoid damage and, in the worst case scenario of being caught in severe weather, be capable of riding out the storm. To do this, a robust hull design and structural integrity, one that also promotes crew safety and is fuel efficient, is required.
3.3 Efficient propulsion systems for improved maneuverability
The capability of the propulsion system is the prime mover in any vessel. Whether a vessel is a conventional propulsion system with fixed pitch propellers, or a more advanced podded propulsion system, it is important that the propulsion system has the necessary power to propel the vessel to a service speed which meets the demand of the owner. It is hugely beneficial to have the necessary power in reserve to allow safe operation of the vessel in heavy weather conditions or to assist in an emergency situation. Available power and reliability is influenced by the precise equipment specification and in order to ensure that the reliability and efficiency is maximized the selection of propeller type and the engine match is extremely important. This has become an increased area of research for many naval architects in view of the fact that excellent cavitation performance and achieved efficiency in a wide variety of operating conditions is likely to be achieved through specific designs of propeller, nozzle, and rudder systems, requiring close co-operation between the propeller designer and the hull form naval architect.
Another interesting possibility to improve maneuverability is the inclusion of a dynamic positioning system. Dynamic positioning systems were believed to be large and expensive, often used in the offshore industry in the deployment of drilling vessels. However, lower cost and more compact systems have been developed making it a feasible proposal for other merchant vessels. This system may be used as an emergency back up system to allow station keeping in the event of main propulsion or steering failure, or it may be used as the primary propulsion and steering system. The idea is particularly interesting with the development of alternative fuel sources and in the future with the development of fuel cells, the efficiency and flexibility of such systems will allow a vessel to be propelled and propelled at any heading without the reliance on a shaft line propulsion system.
3.4 Enhanced safety features and emergency response mechanisms
MARIN has been involved in many projects in sea state forecasting and the interaction of vessels with waves. This research has also fed into many different safety-related studies, including heavy weather avoidance, durability of damaged ships, and roll stabilization. An example of the application of some of this technology is the parametric roll analysis for an LNG carrier in heavy seas presented in Figure 1. This is a particularly hazardous phenomenon that has caused many incidents and accidents in the past decade. Simulation included sea state and ship motion modeling to identify operating conditions that were likely to lead to parametric roll and also the subsequent design of a free-floating roll prevention device that could be deployed in the event of adverse weather.
Developing effective technology for any predictive safety program for navigation in adverse weather must begin with a thorough understanding of both the causes and effects of the expected heavy weather. For safe ship operation, there are many different levels of predicting adverse conditions, and an effective safety regime requires technology at all of these levels. The levels include: climatology for routing and seasonal forecasting, nowcasting with identification of developing systems and storms, sea state forecasting, and prediction of dynamic phenomena at sea. For each of these different tasks, there are a wide variety of numerical and physical modeling approaches, and the majority of work in marine technology for adverse conditions still revolves around sea state prediction.
4. Case Studies and Innovations
Bourmas et al. (2003-2006) highlighted a case study involving the design of a near unsinkable vessel that could provide 40 knots sprint speed and eight days mission time in sea state six. The high performance wave piercing catamaran called Navigator freely roams the vessel's length and breadth. Careful readings from the research were translated into numbers that could be used in seakeeping simulations to ensure successful vessel completion. The specific aim in relation to seakeeping was to develop a vessel capable of maintaining mission speed in sea states three and higher. High speed craft in today's naval fleets are subject to increased hitting rates due to the greater disparity between hull speed and wave speed in relation to slower craft. This results in dramatically increased vertical motion of the vessel and therefore slamming loads. These velocities and loadings are typically the cause of severe fatigue and high levels of shock and vibration to the crew, often resulting in injury and longer-term musculoskeletal disorders. A relatively tight design constraint of no more than 7g's vertical acceleration was an iterative goal between designers and seakeeping developers.
4.1 Successful examples of next-generation vessel designs
Analysing successful examples provides a good insight into the design concepts and innovation that have led to safer vessels. The Double Acting Tanker (DAT) introduced by Aker Arctic is an innovative design aimed at safer and more efficient passage through ice. The vessel has a spoon-shaped bow designed for smooth and efficient movement in ice channels. For open water, it has a stern hull form similar to that of a conventional tanker, giving the vessel the ability to change between ahead and astern ice breaking. This vessel is currently operating in the Baltic and was found to have double the efficiency in ice compared to traditional icebreakers with little loss of efficiency in open water. Another single hull intended for harsh weather is the Monohakon series designed by MOL FSRU/DURO of Mitsui OSK Lines. This vessel has been designed for efficiency between harsh weather voyages and normal cargo transport, as it is compatible to carry various products with its easy conversion from an Aframax shuttle tanker to Suezmax trading tankers, as well as being easy to operate and having lower construction costs compared to purpose-built shuttle tankers. These specific vessels are an advancement from the traditional icebreaker design of a vessel, and with further technological innovation and design techniques, they will no doubt provide much safer and cost-efficient transportation of goods between harsh and mild weather zones. The BAE Systems-led project to build a more secure and safe naval warship led to the development of a virtual ship systems design tool, able to increase the quality and cut the time it takes to construct a ship, as well as improve sustainability and reduce whole life cost. This tool was later used to develop significantly safer offshore and shipping vessels such as the Oshima Shipbuilding Co's Sayaendo concept. This vessel features a continuous cover over the cargo tank, effectively eliminating the risk of seawater intake. The cover is a spherical tank, designed to handle greater thermal expansion and contraction during voyages from tropical to polar climates and enabling an increased safe load window during rough seas. Although these vessels are not specifically designed for harsh weather navigation, the technology and design principles adapted are easily transferable to future vessels that may require safe and efficient passage through any climate.
4.2 Innovative technologies for weather prediction and monitoring
Other methods of improving the availability of weather forecasts to mariners in remote areas of the globe will be through satellite and internet technology. In terms of decision support for route and schedule planning, the provision of data on forecast skill and confidence is just as important as the forecast itself.
The future lies in high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean models which are capable of resolving the key processes governing the marine weather phenomena that have significant impact upon maritime operations. The utility of these models to the shipping industry will be in providing site-specific forecasts of hazardous weather phenomena and their likely impact upon the safety and efficiency of a voyage. Development of technology to facilitate onboard application of the model data is essential. This is a significant advancement from current methods of synoptic chart analysis and obtaining of general marine area forecasts and warnings. A good example of the latter is the availability of tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and similar products produced by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre. An associated significant advancement in tropical cyclone forecasting that is of relevance to the North Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea is the likelihood of improved forecast skill and lead time for the prediction of El Niño and La Niña events. Historical analysis suggests a strong correlation between such events and the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.
Although significant advancements have been made in the field of numerical weather prediction, the capabilities of regional and global models to provide accurate and reliable forecasts for the marine environment are limited. This is largely due to inadequate resolution of atmospheric and oceanic processes relevant to the generation and evolution of hazardous weather phenomena. The significance of these phenomena to the safety and efficiency of specific marine operations in particular locations is also unknown. Global models have a horizontal resolution on the order of 100-300km and therefore do not resolve the spatial and temporal scales of phenomena such as tropical cyclones or thunderstorms.
4.2.1 Forecasting technologies
Innovative technologies for weather prediction make it possible to improve the safety and efficiency of navigation and to make choices based on the outcome of the types of available or expected weather. Future developments in vessel design and operations, crew training and the availability of appropriate equipment will enable the maritime industry to operate with greater safety and efficiency during episodes of adverse weather.
4.3 Collaborative efforts and partnerships in vessel design and development
Another collaborative method commonly offered is shared risk and cost. This was seen in a recent agreement between Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd, Japan Marine United Corporation, and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha to jointly develop an LPG-fueled large CO2 carrier. The agreement stipulated that the LPG fuel carried used in this vessel would be funded as a 'Contribution to social and environmental improvement' from Nippon Yusen and K-line. The vessel, following completion, would be chartered for the purpose of monitoring the safety of CO2 injection and storage as part of A*. This project aimed at moving Japan's CO2 capture and storage demonstration to the next phase.
Another example is that of Sea-Land and Maersk Line, both industry leaders in international shipping, who formed a strategic alliance as Bridge with the simple objective to improve their respective transportation services. This included slot charter agreements in each other's liner services, a co-chartering of four U.S. flag vessels, and the trading of other assets. Overseas, these companies are exploring a joint building initiative of future containerships and cooperated in communications and information technology in warfare an form of a strategic alliance in these two areas. This mutually beneficial agreement has the potential to allow for a sharing of vessels developed in future container ship research. Each of these examples can be seen as an efficient way for these companies to gain access to vessels with minimum individual effort and resources.
In the effort to design the next generation of vessels for the Arabian Sea, several companies will need to form strategic alliances to allow the sharing of resources or expertise. Mitsubishi and Rodriquez Cantieri Navali recently formed a strategic alliance to equip in ship design and marketing activities, R&D, and know-how exchange with the objective to build large-sized ROPAX ships. This agreement would benefit Rodriquez by allowing them access to Mitsubishi's technological expertise in ship design and enable Mitsubishi to enter a new market with a competitive and winning ship type.
Kawagishi, Y. et al. (2003) described collaboration as a method to maximize positive synergy effects while minimizing negative ones in joint efforts. Strategic alliances in the maritime shipping industry can be classified as either horizontal or vertical. Vertical alliances generally are between shipping companies and other companies within the supply chain. Horizontal alliances are most often between shipping companies themselves and involve a sharing of infrastructure or joint operations (Harland, 2002).
4.4 Future prospects and potential advancements in vessel design
The present paradigm of shipping involves a risk assessment of different time scales based on statistical estimates of the probability of events, target avoidance of hazardous conditions, and the allocation of route-specific time-dependent climatological databases. The limited quantities of observed and archived data of environmental conditions, the methodologies for inferring significant wave height from wind speed, and the explicit naive assumptions for the predictability of the atmosphere to mariners mean that improvements in weather forecasting will lead to a clearer understanding of the risks involved in shipping through hazardous conditions. This will lead to a dynamic risk assessment based on the probability of changes in the environment, which can be directly related to the worth of cargo and impact on the design of future shipping systems. High-value cargo or goods that are sensitive to specific environmental conditions will best be transported if there is a low probability of the environment exceeding a condition that is hazardous to the cargo. Comparable to the allocation of bandwidth in telecommunications, this will entail an optimization of the "transmission" of the cargo through the environment with an assurance of no loss or damage. Step changes in computer science have the potential to revolutionize the methodology and efficiency of shipping, its reliability, and the revolution in quantitative risk assessment will be a driving force to make shipping through hazardous conditions safer and more desirable for the foreseeable future.
In terms of vessel design, safety requirements stipulated by future climate change scenarios can be met with innovative design concepts and improved vessel optimization. High latitude and Arctic shipping are sectors in which growth is propelled by changes in global climate. ACT/ITS, European-based research into climate change, has shown that due to uneven distribution of climate change, there is a doubling of warming over the Arctic with a resultant large-scale melting of ice. This will lead to an opening up of new trade routes and reduced transport times due to melting ice removing the need for icebreaker escort and the costly convoys through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route. Reduced ice coverage will lead to increased shipping traffic and probable collisions between merchant vessels and hazardous ice.
The disaster of the M.V. Selendang Ayu in the Bering Sea in December 2004 showed a lack of preparedness for increased shipping across this region, and high seas offshore drilling in the Gulf of Alaska has shown that harsh winter conditions are still a considerable danger to shipping. Items such as the oil and chemical tankers and their skippers' charts are irreplaceable in certain cases, and incidents such as the loss of the Erika off the coast of France in December 1999 have had a significant impact economically and environmentally (M.V. Kontic, personal communication and NOAA, Marine Chart Division). Any adverse effects in the Arctic will have environmental consequences, and hence the preservation of the environment is a safety requirement in these new shipping systems with a potential for environmental seals on future ship operations.

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