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Posted: May 24th, 2023
Econometric regression for port throughput determinants
Port throughput is the amount of cargo that passes through a port in a given period of time. It is an important indicator of port performance, efficiency and competitiveness. Port throughput is influenced by various factors, such as macroeconomic conditions, trade patterns, port infrastructure, port services, port policies and regulations. Understanding the determinants of port throughput can help port managers, policymakers and stakeholders to improve port planning, operation and development.
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This paper aims to conduct an econometric analysis for port throughput determinants, using the Port of Singapore as a case study. The Port of Singapore is one of the world's busiest and most advanced ports, handling about 37.2 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of containerized cargo in 2020. The paper will use secondary data from various sources, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore, the World Shipping Council and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The data will cover the period from 2010 to 2020.
The paper will employ a multiple linear regression model to estimate the relationship between port throughput and its potential determinants. The dependent variable is the annual container throughput of the Port of Singapore in TEUs. The independent variables include:
- GDP: the gross domestic product of Singapore in constant 2010 US dollars
- EXR: the nominal effective exchange rate of Singapore
- TOT: the terms of trade of Singapore
- FDI: the net inflows of foreign direct investment to Singapore in current US dollars
- TARIFF: the average applied tariff rate of Singapore
- INFRA: the quality of port infrastructure in Singapore, measured by the Logistics Performance Index
- SERVICE: the quality of port services in Singapore, measured by the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index
- POLICY: the degree of trade facilitation in Singapore, measured by the Ease of Doing Business Index
The paper will use the ordinary least squares method to estimate the regression coefficients and test their statistical significance. The paper will also check for the assumptions of the regression model, such as linearity, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The paper will use various diagnostic tests and remedial measures to address any potential problems in the model specification.
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The paper expects to find that port throughput is positively related to GDP, FDI, INFRA, SERVICE and POLICY, and negatively related to EXR, TOT and TARIFF. This means that port throughput increases with economic growth, foreign investment, port infrastructure quality, port service quality and trade facilitation, and decreases with exchange rate appreciation, terms of trade deterioration and tariff protection. The paper also expects to find that some variables have stronger effects than others on port throughput.
The paper will provide some implications and recommendations for port management and policy based on the findings of the econometric analysis. The paper will also discuss some limitations and directions for future research.
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Weatherol E (2022) Econometric regression for port throughput determinants, using the Port of Singapore as a case study. World Maritime University Dissertations 2175. https://commons.wmu.se/all_dissertations/2175/
Haris T (2019) An econometric analysis for cargo throughput determinants in Belawan International Container Terminal, Indonesia. World Maritime University Dissertations 2163. https://www.academia.edu/107728335/An_econometric_analysis_for_cargo_throughput_determinants_in_Belawan_International_Container_Terminal_Indonesia
Typeset (2019) An econometric analysis for cargo throughput determinants in Belawan International Container Terminal Indonesia. https://typeset.io/papers/an-econometric-analysis-for-cargo-throughput-determinants-in-3pjuoxpwgr
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