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Posted: November 6th, 2023
Evaluating the Impact of Low-Carbon Marine Fuels on Operations and Maintenance Costs for Ferries in California
The maritime sector is one of the major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution, especially in coastal areas where many ports and harbors are located. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the global shipping industry emitted about 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2018, accounting for about 2.9% of the total global emissions . Moreover, the combustion of marine fuels also produces harmful pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur oxides (SOx), particulate matter (PM), and black carbon (BC), which have adverse impacts on human health and the environment .
In order to reduce the environmental footprint of the maritime sector, several initiatives have been launched at the international, national, and regional levels to promote the adoption of low-carbon and zero-emission marine fuels. For example, the IMO has set a target to reduce the carbon intensity of international shipping by at least 40% by 2030 and 70% by 2050 compared to 2008 levels, and to achieve net-zero emissions by the end of this century . In addition, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) has recently approved updates to its Commercial Harbor Craft Regulation, which aims to reduce emissions from harbor craft such as tugboats and ferries operated near California’s coast . The regulation requires short run ferries, which travel less than three nautical miles over a single run, to be fully zero-emission by the end of 2025, and other categories of harbor craft to use cleaner combustion engines or diesel particulate filters .
However, switching to low-carbon or zero-emission marine fuels may entail significant changes in the operations and maintenance costs for ferry operators, as well as potential challenges in terms of fuel availability, infrastructure development, safety, and performance. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the economic feasibility and environmental benefits of different fuel options for ferries in California, taking into account the specific characteristics of each route, vessel, and fuel type.
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the impact of low-carbon marine fuels on operations and maintenance costs for ferries in California, based on a case study of two representative routes: San Francisco Bay Ferry and Catalina Express. The paper will compare four fuel options: conventional diesel, liquefied natural gas (LNG), renewable natural gas (RNG), and hydrogen. The paper will also discuss the environmental implications of each fuel option in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant emissions.
Methodology
The paper will use a life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) approach to estimate the total cost of ownership (TCO) for each fuel option over a 20-year period, assuming a discount rate of 7%. The TCO will include capital costs, fuel costs, maintenance costs, and other costs such as insurance, crew, administration, etc. The paper will also use a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to quantify the greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutant emissions associated with each fuel option over the same period, taking into account both direct emissions from fuel combustion and indirect emissions from fuel production, transportation, and distribution. The paper will use data from various sources such as CARB, IMO, West Coast Clean Fuels LLC , SWITCH Maritime , Pasha Hawaii Holdings , and academic literature.
The paper will conduct a sensitivity analysis to test how different assumptions and parameters affect the results of the LCCA and LCA. For example, the paper will vary the fuel prices, discount rates, emission factors, vessel utilization rates, etc. The paper will also identify the main drivers and barriers for adopting low-carbon marine fuels for ferries in California, such as regulatory incentives or disincentives, environmental benefits or trade-offs, technical feasibility or challenges, stakeholder preferences or concerns, etc.
Results and Discussion
The paper will present the results of the LCCA and LCA for each fuel option for each route in tables and graphs. The paper will compare the TCOs and emission profiles of each fuel option and identify the most cost-effective and environmentally friendly option for each route. The paper will also discuss the main findings and implications of the sensitivity analysis and highlight the key drivers and barriers for adopting low-carbon marine fuels for ferries in California.
Conclusion
The paper will summarize the main conclusions of the analysis and provide recommendations for policy makers, ferry operators, fuel suppliers, and other stakeholders on how to facilitate the transition to low-carbon marine fuels for ferries in California. The paper will also suggest areas for future research on this topic.
References
: International Maritime Organization (2020). Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020. London: IMO.
: Corbett, J. J., Winebrake, J. J., Green, E. H., Kasibhatla, P., Eyring, V., & Lauer, A. (2007). Mortality from ship emissions: a global assessment. Environmental science & technology, 41(24), 8512-8518.
: International Maritime Organization (2018). Initial IMO Strategy on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships. London: IMO.
: California Air Resources Board (2021). CARB passes amendments to commercial harbor craft regulation. Retrieved from https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/news/carb-passes-amendments-commercial-harbor-craft-regulation
: West Coast Clean Fuels LLC (2021). West Coast Clean Fuels LLC Contracts to Deliver Low-Carbon Fuels to First-of-Kind Ship Operations in California. Retrieved from https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20211019005459/en/West-Coast-Clean-Fuels-LLC-Contracts-to-Deliver-Low-Carbon-Fuels-to-First-of-Kind-Ship-Operations-in-California
: SWITCH Maritime (2021). SWITCH Maritime and All American Marine Launch Sea Change, the First Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vessel in the U.S. Retrieved from https://www.switchmaritime.com/press-release/switch-maritime-and-all-american-marine-launch-sea-change-the-first-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vessel-in-the-u-s/
: Pasha Hawaii Holdings (2021). Pasha Hawaii Welcomes LNG-Powered Containership George III to Fleet. Retrieved from https://www.pashahawaii.com/news/pasha-hawaii-welcomes-lng-powered-containership-george-iii-fleet
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