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Posted: April 20th, 2022
Macro Economics for Financial Markets
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Ireland
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………………………….. 3
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Section 1 : Introduction ……………………………………………………………….. 4
Section 2 : Ireland on the Business cycle ……………………………………………..5
2.1 GDP and GNI* ………………………………………………………………………5
2.2 Unemployment rate …………………………………………………………………..7
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2.3 Inflation rate ………………………………………………………………………….8
2.4 Balance of Payment …………………………………………………………………. 9
Section 3: Domestic and external Demand ………………………………………..….12
3.1 Consumption …………………………………………………………………….…..12
3.2 Government ……………………………………………………………………….…13
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3.3 Investment ……………………………………………………………………………. 14
3.4 Net Exports …………………………………………………………………………. .14
Section 4: Leading Indicators ………………………………………………………….15
4.1 Interest rates ……………………………………………………………………….….15
4.2 balance of trade …………………………………………………………………………17
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Section 5: Potential risks to this Ireland’s economic outlook …………………………. 19
5.1 Britain’s exit from Europe (BREXIT) …………………………………………………19
5.2 Housing crises ………………………………………………………………………….19
Bibliography ……………………………………………………………………………….20
Executive Summary
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This report aims to evaluate the current position of the Irish economy.
A detailed formalized research and analysis has been conducted to determine the below.
1) The current position of Ireland on the business cycle using GDP and GNI* , Unemployment rate , Inflation rate , Balance of Payment
2) The contribution of components of domestic and aggregate demand in the Irish economic activity
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3) The key leading indicators of Ireland.
4) 2 potential risks to Ireland’s current economic outlook - BREXIT and Housing crises
Section1
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Ireland experienced cycles of boom and bust. The Irish economy grew very rapidly for over a decade prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
Having gone through the blast of the mid-2000s and the bust of the 2008-2013 period, the development of late years has conveyed Ireland to the verge of full capacity once and again.
The performance was broadly remarked upon and, as late as June 2008Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) stated: ‘Ireland’s economic success story is one that many OECD countries would like to emulate.’ (OECD 2008, p. x)
However in September 2008, the country fell quickly into a crisis shortly after the failure of Lehman Brothers.
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The Irish Government in September 2008 ensured the liabilities of Irish banks on the basis that they needed ‘temporary support’ during a liquidity crisis. Indeed even before the extent of the solvency crisis in the banking sector was fully appreciated, the construction industry was already in decline—banks were no longer willing or able to lend to the extent that they had up to 2007
For Ireland, it was the combination of the bursting of the housing bubble and the collapse of the domestic banking system, as a result of excessively risky lending, that made the ultimate adjustment process enormously challenging.
With the ECB providing essential liquidity support to the Irish banking system, Ireland was in a position to bit by bit balance its fiscal position and to support a major restructuring of the banks, with the introduction of new banking regulations
Section 2
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Burns and Mitchell (1946) defined business cycle as : “ Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations that organize their work mainly in business enterprises.
Based on theory and prior research, the below indicators have been used to understand the position of Ireland on the business cycle.
2.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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GDP is the measure of economic activity and signals the direction of overall aggregate economic activity.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Ireland was worth 57,500 million EUR in 2017. The GDP value of Ireland represents 0.54 percent.
Source : Eurostat
The Irish economy is expected to grow, in gross domestic product (GDP) terms, by 4.8% this year and 4.2% in 2019
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Modified gross national income, Modified GNI or GNI* was created by the Central Bank of Ireland to measure the Irish economy and Irish indebtedness. It is designed to exclude the effects of globalization that are disproportionally impacting the measurement of the size of the Irish economy.
GNI* per capita was noted to be at 18182 EUR in 2016.
Source : Eurostat
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Comparison between GDP and Modified GNI* :
Ireland is one of the OECD’s fastest growing economies. On comparison of Ireland with the remaning 21 OECD countires for inflation and purchasing power, Ireland’s GDP per capita wavered from about 12% in 1995 to 22% in 2003. GNI* per capita moved from about 20% in 1995 to a less 4% above average, which is still quite a significant jump.
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The key takeaway is the progressive broadening of the hole among GDP and GNI amid the 2000s, trailed by a sharp difference from the earliest starting point of this decade onwards. The progression change obvious in 2015 implies that adjusted GNI added up to €189.2 billion out of 2016, around 33% lower than GDP (the last was an expected €275.6 billion out of 2016).
2.2 Unemployment Rate
Irish seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased to 5.3 percent in October of 2018 from 5.4 percent in September.
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Source : Eurostat
2.3 Ireland inflation rate
Inflation rate in Ireland increased to 0.9 percent in September of 2018 from 0.7 percent in August.
The inflation rates available for Ireland are:
Consumer prices go down 0.1 percent in October, after a 0.4 percent fall in September
The largest upward contribution to the CPI came from: housing & utilities, transport, and restaurants & hotels.
Source : Eurostat
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The HICP shot up 1.1 percent from the previous year; and fell by 0.2 percent from the previous month.
2.4 Balance of payment:
The balance of payments (BOP) is a statement that methodically outlines the economic transactions of an economy with regard to the rest of the world for a specific time period. It is concerned with transactions and deals with flows instead of stocks.
Source : Eurostat
The balance of payments has of three categorizations - the current account, the capital account and the financial account.
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