Posted: September 7th, 2024

Spring 2016 – EBF304W Final Project Assignment

Spring 2016 – EBF 304W Final Project Assignment Due: 5:00pm on Wednesday, 4 May 2015 200 points Instructions: For the course project, you will be asked to evaluate an export decision for a shale oil field in Pennsylvania. You will need to make an export commitment decision in the face of uncertainty over the magnitude and timing of key market variables. Students may work in groups of two or three on this assignment. Groups must be formed by Friday, April 15th.

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Your final response is due back to me by 5:00 pm on Wednesday, May 4 via ANGEL (and a hard copy is due to my office in 121 Hosler Bldg. Please prepare your response exactly as you would in the real world. Among other things, write in a professional manner and make any graphics or tables easy to understand. Further, your response must conform to the following guidelines: 1. Include a cover page with your name and a brief title for your report. 2. Include a one-page executive summary (this does not count against your page limit). We will discuss the format for this summary in class—be sure to follow the format. 3. Your response must be typed, including all tables and graphics. No handwritten responses or hand-drawn graphics will be accepted. 4. Please prepare your response in 12 point Times New Roman font, with one-inch margins on all sides (left, right, top, bottom). 5. Please double-space your response. 6. Please be sure to number your pages. 7. All figures and tables should be numbered consecutively 8. Your response should not exceed 20 single-sided pages or 10 double-sided pages, including all tables, graphics and text. The cover page and the executive summary will notcount against this page limit. 9. You may not use any material outside of class notes and readings. 10. Groups may notconsult with one another in preparing reports. Any questions or issues should be raised with the instructor directly. We will also devote some class time to answering questions on the project. 11. Some (possibly all) of the information contained in the handout has been invented for the purposes of this assignment. Please treat everything in the handout as fact, even if it does not seem realistic to you. You may not invent facts or documents yourself. If you need to make assumptions that are not part of the problem, please make them explicit. (If you find yourself making lots of assumptions, you might want to talk with me. If I see lots of assumptions that I judge to be outlandish, I will lower your grade on the assignment).

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Assignment Schedule Friday, April 15th, 5:00 pm (via ANGEL or email). Let the instructor know whether or not you will be working in a group, and if so, who your group members will be. Wednesday, May 4th, 5:00 pm.Final project reports due to the instructor via ANGEL as a pdf document and as a hard copy to my office in 121 Hosler Bldg. Any supporting information such as spreadsheets, appendices, and other tables, equations, or code should be submitted in a separate file from your final report. Grading: Grades for this assignment will be allotted as follows: 30% - Presentation {60 points} 60% - Content {120 points} 10% - Group Evaluation {20 points} “Presentation” includes clarity and completeness of your writing, the formatting and ease of understanding your tables and graphs, overall organization of your report. “Content” includes the logic and completeness of your analysis, appropriate calculations, assumptions, and simulations, as well as the description of such work as a sufficient level, which can be replicated by a knowledgeable “Group Evaluation” will involve an assessment of your own and your group members’ level of effort on this project. Each individual member of a group must separately complete and submit the group evaluation form. For students who choose to complete the project individually, this evaluation will be a 1-page personal reflection essay on lessons learned in this class, and their application to this project and other real world situations. Good luck and have fun! .gif"> Power Plant Development Decision .gif"> Background:Thomas Edison opened the first central power generating station in New York City in 1882 and ushered in the dawn of the electric age. Since that time, almost all aspects of the power industry have been heavily regulated through a combination of state and federal agencies. Utilities were granted a monopoly in certain geographies to build power generating facilities and all the necessary transmission and distribution infrastructure needed to deliver electricity to the homes and businesses in that region. Those regulated utilities were allowed to recover the costs of building that infrastructure through rates charged to consumers and set by the state Public Utility Commissions. Other aspects of the industry, including the wholesale purchase and sale of electricity (between utilities) and the interstate transmission of electricity were monitored by the Federal Regulatory Commission (FERC). It was a series of federal orders issued by FERC between 1996 and 2003 that deregulated much of the electricity industry and opened up those markets to wholesale competition. Some of the major changes included the formation of Independent System Operators (ISOs) to control the regional transmission grid, providing open access to that transmission grid on a nondiscriminatory basis and standardizing the rules for new generation interconnection to the grid. FERC also focused on the creation of a robust wholesale market for electricity, where generators would compete based on price to sell electricity and utility owned generation would not have an advantage over non-utility owned generation. The combined effect of these rules was profound and ushered in a new age of competition in the electric industry. New companies called Independent Power Producers (IPPs) were able to pursue building power generating facilities as a business model. In 1990, approximately 94% of all electric generating plants in the United States were owned by a regulated utility. In 2010, that number had dropped to 58%. Electricity

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Generation Hours: The power plants do not run continuously. Instead, they generate electricity on certain peak and off-peak hours, and use the remainder of the time to conduct necessary maintenance. However, mostly this is due to the fact that more power generation capacity exists than is necessary for low demand times of day and parts of the year. Each turbine will have the ability to run during on-peak and off-peak hours. On-peak hours are Monday through Friday, 7 am until 11 pm; generally, the hours which the most electricity is used and when it is the most expensive. Off-peak hours are Monday through Friday, 12 am until 7 am and 11pm until 12 am. Off-peak also includes all day Saturday and Sunday, and NERC holidays. NERC holidays are New Year’s, Memorial, Independence, Labor, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. Off Peak hours are when electricity is not being used as much and is cheaper. Base your total number of on-peak and off- peak days based on January 1 of a non-leap year. Electricity Since a power plant does not run every hour of the year, you will have to find the amount of electricity generated per month/year based on the percentage of hours the plant will be expected to produce electricity. Provided below are the generation percentage for On-Peak and Off-Peak hours for each month supplied by your company’s Operations Group. Once you have found out the total number of hours in each month, you will have to multiply that by the percent of generation to determine the total number of hours of expected run time each month. Prices:

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Electricity prices include both capacity payments and payments received per MWh of electrical power produced. For the purposes of this project, these two factors have been combined into a single value. The amount expected to be received for each MWh produced for the next 20 years is anticipated to be as follows (this data has also been provided in the supplemental Excel worksheet). .gif"> Gas Prices: An energy economics firm has provided a forecast of possible future gas prices, which are as follows in the table below. This data has also been provided in the supplemental Excel worksheet. .gif"> Your Assignment: Your team has been asked by the company to evaluate the decision of which power plant to build at the Philadelphia site. To that end, you need to perform the following: 1. Calculate the expected MWh output and the expected fuel use and fuel expenditures for each power plant. 2. Generate a complete Pro Forma statement for the two power plant options including the profit and loss and cash flow statements. Use annual accounting for these statements. 3. Evaluate the tax benefits to the company of using the 10-year MACRS depreciation tables versus 10-year straight-line depreciation of the power plant capital expenditures. 4. Conduct a sensitivity analysis and consider the robustness of your decision for 20% increases or decreases in the following factors: a. Capital expenditures b. Gas prices c. Electricity revenues 5. Fit a reasonable statistical distribution to electricity prices and gas prices and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation for both power plant options accounting for all three uncertain factors. Report the risk that these power plants will not have a positive NPV, and the risk that one power plant will be a less viable choice than the option not recommended. .gif"> Gas Transportation and Storage Decision .gif"> Transport

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Modes: Your company has 3 transportation modes available for transporting gas to your power plant. Your company has several existing gas fields and can supply sufficient gas to meet all the needs of the selected power plant. Your team must develop a transport strategy to maximize the efficient delivery of that gas as needed. Pipeline The pipeline has a minimum capacity of 20,000 MMBTU per day, and a maximum of 40,000 MMBTU per day. The investment costs for the two pipeline routes as given in the previous memo assignment remain the same. The transportation costs for the pipeline total $0.50/MMBTU. Rail Rail cars can transport smaller amounts of gas up to large amounts, yet they require less initial investment. The investment for a rail transfer depot at the power plant is $80 million. The minimum for the rail transport is 5,000 MMBTU per day, and a maximum of 30,000 MMBTU per day. The transportation costs for rail are $1.00/MMBTU.

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Truck Trucks have no minimum shipment size, and a very small initial investment of only $1 million. There is no maximum amount that the trucks can carry, but for each increment of 10,000 MMBTU, the cost of transport increases by $2.00/MMBTU. The starting cost is also $2.00/MMBTU. Leak Detection For each transportation option, if it is chosen, the transported gas must remain above the minimum for that option for the year.

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System: There is a leak detection system available to be purchased for the pipeline system. The cost of implementing the leak detection system is $500,000. The accuracy of such a system is described in the conditional probability table below. Leak No Leak

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Leak Detected 0.99 0.02 No Leak Detected

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0.01 0.98 If a leak is detected, then it can be contained before any damages occur. If a leak is not detected, then damages occur as described in the section below. A false alarm results in a cost of $25,000 to the company. The probability of a leak is 1 in 10,000. Disaster Severity

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Modeling: Disasters may result from any of the natural gas transportation options. In these events, natural gas leaks from the transport vessel and is then ignited by sparks or high temperatures or open flames and an explosion results. If a leak occurs, the severity of such a leak in millions of dollars of damages is given by the following expression ???? = 2????, where .gif"> is a number following a Poisson distribution with a mean value of 2.5 (???? = 2.5). Your Assignment: Your team should investigate the following decisions and justify your recommendations to management on: 1. Generate a gas transport strategy for meeting the needs of the selected power plant. 2. Determine the value of the leak detection system.

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