Evaluate the banker’s argument that project loans and commercial loans are equally risky.
In August of 2002 the banking community was attempting to understand what effect the Basel II Models Task Force (MTF) was going to have on their industry. Initial estimates of additional required capital was in excess of 22% compared to current level. This evoked a strong reaction from many of the institutions none stronger than Citi Bank, ABN AMRO, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale. The four banks established a task force and engaged Risk Solutions a division of Standard and Poor’s Corporation to commence a study based in 3 phases:
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Phase 1 – analyze LGD of Project Finance Loans of the four institutions
Phase 2 – analyze the PD of Project Finance Loans of the four institutions
Phase 3 – repeat the process with six to ten additional banks to bolster the statistical relevance of the findings
This exercise presented a number of difficulties. None greater than agree on a a definition of Project Finance and Default. The consortium agreed on the following:
Project Finance: A project company is a group of agreements and contrats between lenders, project sponsors, and other interested parties that creates a form of business organization that will issue a finite amount of debt on inception; will operate in a focused line of business; and, will ask that lenders look only to a specific asset to generate cash flow as the sole source of principal and interest payments as collateral.
Default: a borrower was un able to make a contractually scheduled payment of principal and/or interest. This would include bankruptcies that disrupt payments, including default and cure within the grace period, consensual restructuring, amendment of the credit facility’s repayment terms, and/or refinancing the facility with the original lenders in order to give the borrower more time to repay the loan.
The conclusion reached and the argument made by the consortium to the MTF was “ The results are fairly clear: project finance loans are not riskier than comparably rated corporate loans either from an LGD or PD perspective” as per James Baker, an associate at Deutsche Bank and echoed by S&P Risk Solutions. The consortium in question was responsible for originating 25% od all project loans in 2001. Finance homework help
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