# Research on Navigation Safety Evaluation of Chinese Ports

Navigation safety is a vital issue for the development of maritime transportation and trade, especially for a country like China, which has a long coastline and many ports along the Maritime Silk Road (MSR). However, the evaluation of navigation safety in Chinese ports faces many challenges, such as data incompleteness, uncertainty, and complexity. Therefore, this paper aims to propose a novel approach to assess the navigation safety of Chinese ports based on fuzzy set theory, evidential reasoning, and expected utility theory. The proposed approach can deal with the vagueness and ambiguity of risk data, as well as the operational and environmental uncertainties in port areas. The approach is applied to five key ports along the MSR, namely Shanghai, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Qingdao, and Dalian. The results provide useful insights for port authorities, shipping companies, and policy makers to enhance port safety, improve operational efficiency, and optimize route planning.

## Introduction

China is one of the largest maritime countries in the world, with a coastline of about 18,000 km and more than 2000 ports . Among them, there are over 600 ports along the MSR, which is an initiative launched by China in 2013 to promote connectivity and cooperation among countries in Asia, Africa, and Europe . The MSR has significant implications for global freight transport, as it connects more than 65 countries that jointly account for over 62% of the world’s population, about 30% of the world’s GDP, and around 24% of the household consumption . The MSR also aims to enhance cooperation in the fields of economic interests, international trade, and shipping transportation.

However, with the increasing demand for international shipping and the growing throughput of ports along the MSR, the navigation safety of these ports has become a major concern. Ports are complex systems that involve various stakeholders, such as port authorities, shipping companies, terminal operators, cargo owners, and regulators. Ports are also exposed to various risks, such as ship collisions, groundings, fires, explosions, spills, piracy, terrorism, and natural disasters . These risks can cause serious consequences for human lives, property losses, environmental damages, and economic losses. Therefore, it is crucial to carry out an effective safety evaluation of ports to ensure the robustness and sustainability of the MSR.

However, traditional quantitative risk analysis (QRA) approaches used in ports face many challenges when being applied within the context of the MSR. First of all,